Analysis Department of Bankinter offers its forecasts for the next behavior of currencies (Eurodollar, Euroyen, Eurolibra and Eurosuizo):
Eurodollar (€ / $): Week with a movement back and forth marked by US macroeconomic data -Confidence consumer and indicator of manufacturing activity (ISM) – Friday.
After an appreciation of the euro from one figure to 1,338, similar to last November 2013, the macro pushed the euro to levels last Monday (1.342). In this context holiday without great references or macro or micro, we believe it would be reasonable to see an exchange rate fluctuations experiencing mild trading without large volatilities in the estimated range (week): 1,350 / 1,335.
Euroyen (€ / JPY): After weeks of strength due to increased geopolitical risks, the yen weakened in recent frete the euro and the dollar days after the publication of figures for US GDP growth in 2T’14 clearly higher than estimated. This week, we believe that the crossing will remain stable, because the central bank made no changes to its monetary policy: do not expect new decisions on the ECB meeting, while the BoJ will maintain unchanged its monetary base.
Weekly estimated range: 137.2 / 1,382.
Eurolibra (€ / GBP): The drop in consumer confidence and the decline in the index of purchasing managers (PMI) later this week, has impacted negatively on the price of the pound has depreciated to the level of 0.797 (from 0.790). During this week, the ECB rate announcement data and a relatively weak industrial production should increase the volatility of the pound we expect it trades within the weekly range estimate: 0.798 / 0.789.
Eurosuizo (€ / CHF): The franc continues to trade in narrow range shows some weakness after insisting the SNB (Swiss National Bank) in its commitment to keep the currency weak against the Euro. During this week, the inflation rate in Switzerland should confirm the monetary policy (loose) of SBN so we estimate that the franc cotice similar to current levels.
Weekly range estimate: 1,217 / 1,215