Weekly forex analysis: weekly forecast of euro against dollar, yen, pound and Swiss
Analysis Department of Bankinter offers its forecasts for the next behavior currencies: Eurodollar, Euroyen, Eurolibra and Eurosuizo.
Eurodollar (€ / USD): we are ready for a depreciation of the euro even more aggressive, as recent history both as weekly events and statements from Merkel about Greece invite it. As for the background, the final PMI Manufacturing December published on Friday revised down from 50.8 to 50.6 preliminary and get no more than 51 points since Jul’14. But the ultimate shock is because Merkel has said that now the EMU could withstand Greek exit from the euro.
Wednesday’s CPI EMU, which could be in negative (-0.1%) … which, among other factors, has allowed the German 5-year bond would place on Friday IRR negative (-0.001% be published ), although still unstable. Thus the euro can only suffer and, after hitting 1.1875 last night, this week consolidated loss level 1.20.
Estimated range (week): 1,188 / 1,197.
Euroyen (€ / JPY) Yen and Euro compete to be the weakest among developed economies currency, but this week will probably win the second. Only the greatest relative weakness of the euro will protect the yen to retreat beyond the 145.5 level. Without particularly adverse and EMU entry into deflation Japanese data (on Wednesday the CPI is published, probably -0.1%) and affected by uncertainty over Greece, will most likely still hold the yen this week below 145.0.
Estimated range (week): 143.5 / 144.5.
Eurolibra (€ / GBP): The week ended with a sidetone. Pound returned to the level earlier this week after learning a fact of UK Manufacturing PMI weaker than the previous data (52.5 vs 53.3). Looking ahead to the next few days will be the trend of depreciation of the euro before the ECB meeting of 22/01, which could start a program of buying bonds and after the publication of a price level in Europe is expected very low (- 0.1% e). In addition, in the UK the BoE rate meeting will be held, although we do not consider relevant developments.
Estimated range (week): 0.774 / 0.791.
Eurosuizo (€ / CHF ): Last week was characterized by laterality in the currency cross. Over the next most important day will be the publication of the IPC in Switzerland, it is expected that the price level has fallen in December. -0.2% from -0.1% previously. Deflation is one of the main problems of the country so the drop in prices will provide additional arguments to the SNB to maintain the minimum level in its currency at 1.20. This could cause the Swiss closed the week depreciated more.
Estimated range (week): 1,201 / 1,202.