Is history repeated in China? Strategy Banca March, July 2013 – genxfxtrader

History Is Repeated in China? Banca March Strategy, July 2013 – genxfxtrader


In the sovereign bond markets , types of bonds that have been regarded as a haven, mainly German and American, have seen sharply grew their returns, implying significant losses for bondholders, as we have been warning in recent months. Although we think the natural tendency of the types of these instruments is clearly upward , perhaps the market has responded in excess; especially in the case of German bonds, for being Europe still in a recessionary scenario. We think therefore that the increases can be partially corrected, but still recommend staying out of this asset.


Chapter aside for emerging, who have suffered double – digit penalties so far this year , the possible sharp slowdown of the economy in China . We think that this scenario will not materialize, so Asian markets could do better than average in the coming months, should improve macroeconomic data in China. We continue outside the Latin American region, especially Brazil, where we believe that economic problems if they can have a more structural nature.

In currency markets, described above should draw a bullish scenario for the dollar against the euro in the coming months ; the combination of stronger economic activity, together with a growing rate differential in favor of the United States against Europe show signs of upward trend for the greenback. Emerging currencies could also recover some lost ground in recent weeks. As for the pound, we maintain maximum caution in crossing against other currencies, especially if the new Governor of the Bank of England maintained or even large stimulus plans.

Finally, commodity markets, heavily influenced by fears of a slowdown in emerging markets. Prices of industrial metals and agricultural products suffer double – digit declines in the year , but could recover quickly if China returns to give signs of strength.

Month and year to forget for investors in gold , whose price should continue to fall as rates back into positive territory in real terms (discounting inflation) and continue diluting systemic risks around the euro. Finally, the price of Brent crude is below its equilibrium price between supply and demand (110 USD), so neither would disposables increases in the price of this raw material. 

The facts can no longer hide, and absurd to continue hiding that China faces a worrying economic recession, after years of growth, enormous work, overproduction and overproduction and monetary accumulation that has led to many disruptions in production structures, business and social needs of its global markets.

They know they must face their crisis with optimism, trying to dramatize situations that thought would never come again; lack of work, well – educated young Chinese who can not find jobs …


Anyway, I would
not call it crisis to China but reduced growth. China ‘s economic growth in recent years was excessive and it was clear that they could not continue to grow at these rates. A greeting.

I will not contradict but China about the limited data that I have; llamésmole somehow “crisis” Parenthetically drags over four years. China and the United States know they can accelerate or delay the process (the second week of July will be held in Washington ; a new round of talks in the <>) but in the meantime China strengthens its relations with Russia strengthens its firm settlements in Latin America and to pacta monetary links between renminbi and the pound of England contradistinta rest of the European Union desperately trying to survive on the income of a past that when the truth is nothing more than talk …


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