The dollar has appreciated somewhat forcefully against the euro throughout 2014 as a result of higher US growth against the weakness of EMU. In our view, this scenario decoupling of the American economy will continue over the next 2 years, so the depreciation trend of the euro will be consolidated once you start to materialize more clearly the different path they are taking the monetary policy of the ECB and the Federal Reserve.
In Europe, the ECB will keep interest rates at the current level of 0.05% over the next 2 years in order to reduce the risk of deflation. The slight increase in the CPI and the influence of low energy prices on inflation expectations cause they are at levels well below the ECB target. In addition, growth prospects point to a very slow recovery, so that the economy continues to need the ECB to ensure low costs of funding.
On the contrary, the first rate hikes the Fed will strengthen the dollar, so we estimate that the Eurodollar will be placed on a range $ 1.15 / $ 1.25 in 2015 and 1.15 / 1.20 US dollars to over 2016.
Links of interest
Strategy Outlook Report 2015-2016
GDP forecast Spain
Spain unemployment forecast
Spain exports forecast
IBEX35 forecast for 2015
Forecast EuroStoxx 50 2015
Forecast S & P 500 2015
Forecast Nikkei-225 2015
Eurodollar forecast 2015 and 2016
Eurolibra forecast 2015 and 2016
Euroyen forecast 2015 and 2016
Eurosuizo forecast 2015 and 2016
Other economic forecasts
Forecast euro zone interest rates