Analysis Department of Bankinter offers weekly crossings forecasts for euro against the dollar, yen, Swiss franc and pound.
Eurodollar (€ / $) .- Neither the ad nor the good data tapering US macro that widely beat expectations (Orders Bs. Durable + 3.5% New Housing Sales 464K) were enough to appreciate the dollar. This week, according to estimates, the figures on the US economy remain positive, which invites us to think that the depreciatory movement should not continue.
Estimated range (week): 1,370 / 1,378 .
Euroyen (€ / JPY) .- According to the BoJ monthly bulletin recovery CPI Japan will continue a moderate pace. In addition, the government revised downward its growth forecast for fiscal 2013 to + 1.4% from + 2.6%, by the impact of the VAT increase will fight with new stimulus measures. On the other hand, the Japanese stock market is in overbought levels, so the sale of shares this week would increase the demand for yen.
Estimated range (week): 143.9 / 145.7 .
Eurolibra (€ / GBP) .- week characterized by stability due to the holidays and lack of macro data in both geographical areas. Looking ahead to the next few days the situation will be very similar, since the macro will be scarce in the Eurozone and non – existent in the UK. In this context our central scenario is consolidation levels.
Estimated range (week): 0.832 / 0.839 .
Eurosuizo (€ / CHF) .- Last week was marked by some laterality in the currency cross. The absence of relevant references not conducive to sudden movements. The next day the trend will be similar. The only important thing is the publication of PMI Manufacturing figures in both geographies, with a moderate impact. Given that there are no sources of uncertainty in the market that encourage appreciation of the Swiss, we estimate that the range will remain rather stable.
Estimated range (week): 1.219 to 1.229 .