Daily Analytics of the Financial Markets of Iván Marchena (12/25) – genxfxtrader

Daily Analytics of the Financial Markets of Ivan Marchena (12/25) – genxfxtrader

The CAD and Bitcoin: upwards!

Market Currencies

Another reason for the rise of the Canadian dollar

USD / CAD was bearish potential, but intervened oil. Black gold liquidations not let the pair fell sharply. However, there are still chances of relegation.

It is that if it were not for oil, the Canadian dollar would demand skyrocketing because of a simple change of commercial purposes.
For now the likelihood of rising interest rates in Canada in July is 58% as opposed to 5% indicated two weeks ago. In our opinion, the rate increase because the appreciation of the national currency.

The mood changed when a representative of the Central Bank of Canada hinted that interest rates in the near future would
be increased. After the publication of solid data on retail sales we realize that we are in this “future.” Therefore, if oil persists in its growth, there will be a stimulus for the Canadian and the settlement of USD / CAD.

The target for the USD / CAD is the mark of 1.32 and followed by 1.3160.
According Libertex, the pair is already at the level of 1,322.

The Bitocin grow despite reaching the maximum

This week the Bitcoin grew by 10% and amounted to 2713.00 dollars mark. The agreement between supporters of Bitcoin Bitcoin Core Unlimited and was the main driver of growth. They solved the problem of the growing number of transactions that could be divided into two separate Bitcoin assets.

In addition, criptomonedas’s popularity continues to
grow, what makes this attractive asset for investment.

The Indian government plans to
start regulating the market of Bitcoin. Soon the working group for the development of the normative base will be formed. The probability that this currency is legalized in the second most populous country in the world has grown dramatically. It is worth mentioning that India bags about 10% of transactions are performed.

The Bitcoin gradually begins to act as the medium of exchange.
Bitcoin Canadian company First Capital Corp (BITCF) said it would use checks to purchase Bitcoin ATMs in northern California as possible.

The online Bitcoin wallet Blockchain.info said could attract $ 40 million from private investors for development of the system.
The company has opened 15 million and purses. In addition, the company is considered to be the reliable supplier of statistical and analytical of this criptodivisa.

Another example comes from Europe.
On Monday, June 19, the European digital bag Bitstamp opened the possibility of buying and selling litecoin against the dollar, euro and Bitcoin.

Forbes newspaper urged readers to buy Bitcoin in the article “How to
buy Bitcoin now level highs.” According to Libertex, digital currency is now at the level of $ 2692.99. 

The minimum coffee prices attract investors

Market goods and raw materials

prices coffee (COFFEE) fell to historic lows due to strong pressure from sellers.
The price has corrected 13.9%, as investors worried that demand exceeds supply. According Libertex, the price is now near the lows of 2015.

Latest oscillations are due to the correction of 3.3% of the Brazilian real against the dollar, which stimulates exports in dollars.
It is worth mentioning that Brazil is the global leader in the production and export of coffee. Also keep in mind that drop set coffee prices denominated in the British pound on the ICE Futures exchange in London which caused the reevaluation of coffee prices in dollars.

The minimum coffee prices caused by fluctuations in exchange rates can attract buyers, because the fundamentals of supply and demand do not support the current price level.
A new trend in fluctuations in exchange rates can retrieve prices.

Ivan Marchena, analytical expert

Attention: Past performance does not mean future profitability. Any forecast is for informational purposes only and is not a guarantee. 

NZD / USD stopped growing

Market Currencies

This year the pair NZD / USD is sold in the commercial range from 0.6880 to 0.7340. From mid-May pair is approaching the upper limit of the indicated range. According Libertex, the NZD / USD and is almost at this level.

The market optimism takes everything that happens in the New Zealand economy, but there are several signs that can take place sharp drop in par.
First, GDP in the first quarter turned out to be weaker than expected.

Second, the dynamics of prices for dairy is now less favorable for the country.
For six consecutive months prices were growing in the GDT bag, but last Tuesday the situation changed – for the first time in 6 weeks prices fell 0.8%. If the situation repeats itself , there may be many settlements par. 

Therefore, the pair NZD / USD can lower the target mark 0.7200.

Ivan Marchena, analytical expert 

Attention: Past performance does not mean future profitability. Any forecast is for informational purposes only and is not a guarantee. 


Maneuver euro

Market Currencies

The EUR / USD rose sharply and renewed up to 2 weeks (depending Libertex, it is the mark of 1.1265). It was Mario Draghi who encouraged the single currency.

In his speech at the economic forum he declared that soon the central bank would
end the policy of economic stimulation. He also confirmed that the recovery in the euro area is accelerating. The economy growth rate will exceed forecasts. Because there are many signs of this.

However, according to
Libertex, the EUR / USD ahead for the fairly strong resistance level of 1.1280. In addition to technical grounds, it should take into account the fundamental factors. The aggressive policy of the US Fed may recover the demand for the dollar.

In this context the EUR / USD may reach 1.1280.
Because of the fundamental and technical factors in this area must seek sales opportunities aimed at the 1.1220 mark.

Euro and Brent have potential

Market Currencies

According Libertex, the potential of EUR / USD was undervalued and the influence of the head of the Federal Reserve was underestimated. In fact, in the context of fine market and the lack of economic data investors they reacted excessively dramatic to the words of Mario Draghi. You need to understand ahead.

First, it
is true that Draghi surprised everyone. Actually, he announced the beginning of the new economic era. The reaction of investors is a sign that they believe in the current economic recovery. That is, the euro has good growth potential.

Second, the head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen said nothing new.
Only confirmed the gradual increase in the interest rate. But the market is already aware of this and even has doubts about the realization of this scenario. It is the signal to sell the dollar. 

Third, for quite a long time the market was uncertain prospects in the euro area by migratory and electoral problems.
For now the risk factors are behind us , and we are seeing the output Bears euro. It is beneficial for the common currency. 

After breaking the mark 1,13 torque can reach the mark of 1.15 before the end of next week.
The current immediate objective is the mark of 1.1420.

Market goods and raw materials

Oil prices continue to rise. The Energy Department report said US fuel stocks fell 894,000 barrels, which stimulated purchases of Brent. In addition, production fell 55 thousand barrels per day. It is the record drop since August 2016. It seems that current prices are no benefits for producers of shale oil. It is very likely that Brent try to break the record of $ 48.00 a barrel.

Pound, inflation and interest rates

Market Currencies

It is impossible to ignore the pair GBP / USD. According Libertex in last three days the pair grew by almost 300 basis points, but not the maximum yet. 

Inflationary acceleration observed this year caused by the decline of the pound is the main argument.
The Bank of England has to fight inflation by increasing the interest rate. In general, when the first references appear, the national currency can not be stopped. 

It all began on June 28.
Mark Carney in his speech said that in the near future the regulator would have to leave the regime stimulation. It’s a slight hint and still there are no fixed deadlines, but considering that a week ago was contrary position, the market took his words with enthusiasm. 

After the issue was supported by another representative of the Bank of England.
Andy Holdane mentioned that the problem of increasing the interest rate should be seriously analyzed in order to prepare the national economy for the future. All speeches of this kind support the demand for sterling.

Of course, buying the pound at current levels is very risky.
Worth waiting for correction 1.2930 level and purchase the asset there with the immediate objective at 1.2990 mark. You can also expect the break of the strong resistance level of 1.30 and then enjoy the long – term uptrend. 

Attention: Past performance does not mean future profitability. Any forecast is for informational purposes only and is not a guarantee. 


Bitocoin in the ambiguous context. Recovery Dow

Market Currencies

Bitcoin is traded around record highs for three weeks now. At the same time, the volatility of the currency remains high – according Libertex, at week 20 to June 30 lost the active and down about 13.3%. The active tried to descend, but still feel the strong support level of $ 2300 per Bitcoin. The breakdown of this brand give technical signal for deeper correction. 

Now the news became more ambiguous. 

The report prepared by the International Monetary Fund, leading economists such as Vikram Haksar and Ross Lekkov urged global banks to invest more in Bitcoin and accept it
as legitimate means of payment. They noted that the rapid development of digital technology transforms the way of providing financial services.

The producer of computer Sapphire Technology announced the launch of developed mining for graphics cards only crypto
currency . This equipment will operate at frequency more than 1000 MHz.

One of the biggest bags of crypto
currency BTCC DAX announced plans to launch the platform to market only criptomonedas against criptomonedas.

At the
same time lawmakers in the European Union will discuss the possibility of developing the draft law against using criptomonedas in money laundering. Normative acts presented in Italy a month ago can form the basis for EU legislation. Stock markets in which they operate criptomonedas are those that will be affected by the law. In addition, there are rumors that the US law criptomonedas (Regulation of Virtual Currencies Business Act) is unfavorable for Bitcoin. 

Stock market

The Indexes stock Americans go down as central banks indicate that the global economic acceleration may be cause for termination policy stimulation that lasts 9 years already. According Libertex, the Dow Jones dropped 1% of the weekly highs. 

However, in the period of tightening monetary and credit policy the
shares of fast – growing companies have the highest risk. Dow Jones components generally are cyclical instruments and feel more or less optimistic when US macroeconomic statistics It is positive. Experts expect that this week the PMI and labor market data are positive. Therefore, the current correction is the opportunity to go shopping. It would be logical to open positions at the level of the moving average of 50 periods (21,075), having as the objective the level of 21,355.
Ivan Marchena, analytical expert

AUD is attractive to buy. Wheat is overrated

Market Currencies

According Libertex, the AUD / USD down 50 basis points on Monday, but the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia dedicated to monetary and credit policy can change the whole situation. 

In general, when interest rates are reduced, the national currency down (upside down when rates are increased, the currency is consolidated).
Now the central bank has no reason to increase the rate, since the regulator is concerned about the housing market, where a bubble may appear.

Moreover, the recovery seen in the country ‘s
labor market. The market mentality is more optimistic every day, the isolation of Qatar is favorable for Australian natural gas demand, and copper will appreciate. 

In addition, the general trend of aggressive major central banks around
the world will not let the bank of Australia to continue easing monetary policy. It is the direct signal to buy the AUD. The current correction creates all conditions to enter this currency.

The immediate target for the AUD / USD is the mark of 0.77, followed by 0.7740.

Market goods and raw materials 

Time and concerns about poor harvests due to drought did grow grain prices. According Libertex, wheat (WHEAT) advanced sharply, up 25% in four weeks. 

At the same time, the monthly report of the US Department of Agriculture
(WASDE) stresses that the surplus in the wheat market registará. In particular, the supply of wheat in the 2017/2018 marketing year will fall 2.8 million tons to 996 million tons and consumption will fall to 734.8 million tonnes. Accordingly, the volume of wheat forecast surplus has been reconsidered, to the end of the business year will have been 2.9 million tons, ie 261.2 million tons in total.

The following WASDE forecast will be published on July 11, and it
seems that there will be significant changes to compensate for the increase of 25%. Pending the publication of the report and taking into account the very rapid appreciation, it makes sense to bet on price correction and closing of long positions. The immediate objective is the mark of 491.0.

The aim of the EUR / USD – 1.1410

Market currency

intervention Donald Trump again influenced the market
currency . According Libertex in last three days the EUR / USD lost 100 basis points integers.

Donald Trump repeatedly drew market attention with their comments on Twitter.
Investors usually follow the president ‘s words, as he occasionally may disclose confidential information. The other day Donald Trump described as “outstanding” labor market data. You can not deduct the context if he spoke of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) indicator to be released soon. Whatever it was, the similar incident already took place last month.

In June in one of his twits Donald Trump emphasized that GDP figures were good, and indeed, the indicator exceeded forecasts.
The market already included in the price the positive employment data and also the hopes of rising interest rates intensified. That is, if the report is to be published on Friday disillusioning, there will be a remarkable wave of dollar settlements.

Current levels of EUR / USD look attractive to buy with the immediate target 1.1410 mark.

Global trends in financial markets in the first half of 2017
Dollar and Bitcoin

From the beginning of 2017, according Libertex, the dollar index (dollar against global currencies basket) dropped 7.2%.
The US dollar lost their positions in the context of the publication of weak macrostatistics regarding expectations of market participants, which supports the view that the Federal Reserve of the United States not actively increase the interest rate in the second half. Fed in June rose 0.25 points this rate, but the continued tightening of monetary policy is in doubt. The reforms announced by Trump still can not find enough support in Congress, which also deters him the central bank tightening of monetary and credit policy.

In addition, the dynamics of Bitcoin is dazzling against the dollar this year.
The dollar lost 62% against the Bitcoin. In the second quarter the price of Bitcoin grew more than 2.5 times the maximum intraday amounted to $ 2879 per Bitcoin, the active end of the quarter was closed at the level of $ 2400. Bitcoin draws the attention of investors as a way to make money, not as the means of payment. At the same time the justified appreciation of Bitcoin occurs when the currency is used as the means of payment for goods and services. The period of speculative cryptocurrency maintenance in
portfolio investment is not characterized by higher Bitcoin. In general, note that the interest towards criptomonedas reached its peak and, in particular, is due to the use of Bitcoin in making payments between participants, the use of the coin eat a circumvention monetary limitations, and hedging devaluation of currency in emerging markets

Weaker currencies in
the first quarter of this year are Uzbekistan (lost 22.5%), Tajikistan (11.9%) and Argentina (7.5%).

Ivan Marchena

The dynamics of the USD / JPY this week

Market Currencies

The USD / JPY went through a fairly long way in the last two weeks, and according Libertex still has growth potential to 114,00 in view of the future publication of labor market data from the United States. In addition, negative residue is caused by Japan’s economy. 

It is
recalled that it became clear in the elections of the mayor of Tokyo that took place this weekend that the party of Prime Minister Abe loses supporters. That is, the prime minister will try to return to the voters in their ranks with the most popular measures: the weak yen is favorable for trade, low interest rates and ultra soft monetary policy are favorable for the economy. All of the above creates conditions for the fall of the yen, but since this is included in the price.

On the
other hand the market believes in the strong US data to be published on Friday. Trump tweeted insinuated that the set of labor market data would be positive. Investors also included this factor in the price. Therefore, until Friday the dollar will be in demand, but it would be logical exit the market before the publication of data. Or start selling the pair.

The immediate objective losing streak in USD / JPY is the mark of 112.30.

Ivan Marchena, analytical expert 

Attention: Past performance does not mean future profitability. Any forecast is for informational purposes only and is not a guarantee. 


Libra and Ferrari can bounce
Is the time to buy the pound?

Market Currencies

Three recent weeks three disappointing factors influenced the dynamics of the GBP / USD: services, manufacturing and construction.
In these areas it has slowed business activity.

Most importantly, according to
Libertex, the pair lost anything over 100 points in difficult conditions. In addition, the slope is so insignificant even though we recently witnessed strong demand for the dollar. This means that investors will not rush to sell the British currency, because they have more confidence in Mark Carney, whose economic thinking is aggressive now. Accordingly, the pair GBP / USD will grow, if necessary conditions for this.

The publication of labor market data in the
US You can create these conditions. The market expected to be very optimistic of this report, taking into account the suggestion Trump to “hard data.” Data from wage inflation is carefully observed, because in the last minutes of the Open Market Committee is said that several members of this institution they were not sure of subsequent price growth.

If the number of jobs and the average wage in the Non-Farm Payrolls report does not reach the levels indicated in the forecast, there will be a new wave of liquidations of dollar.
In this case the pair GBP / USD may reach 1.3030, followed by 1.31.

Now everyone can buy Ferrari, at least, actions


With favorable growth fundamentals, the
shares of Ferrari seem to be quite attractive to buy, because now they fell to support levels. The company is one of the most attractive companies for investment in the automotive sector.

First, sales of cars are not under the influence of cyclical factors and are now quite stable.
Those who buy Ferrari are millionaires, and the number of rich people is being increased. For example, the number of US households, whose savings exceed 1 million grew by 400 thousand in 2016. In addition, Ferrari, unlike traditional car producers, has very low capital costs, because the range of cars slow changes.

It would be logical to
shares Ferrari (RACE) if closed above 86.60 resistance, that according Libertex corresponds to the moving average of 50 hours. In addition, actions to test the moving average of 50 periods began to actively grow. The goal for RACE is the mark of 89.80.

Waiting for the fall of Bitcoin

Market Currencies

All Bitcoin attempts to return to the highs seen recently are unsuccessful.
The probability of fairly deep correction grows. The objective of the bearish wave will be the mark of 1900.00. But before the cryptocurrency you have to break the strong resistance, which, according to technical analysis with Libertex platform is located at the level of 2300,00.

Uncertainty in the question of climbing is the major cause of pressure.
It is that two protocols were able to overcome the limit of consensus. 1 August for the issue will be resolved. So far , the Bitcoin will fall.

Cryptocurrency can be sold in two cases.
First, if it breaks the mark of 2300. Second, if the currency returns to the highs recientemente.Y not be ruled out that the long term. Bitcoin expects the development of regulatory rules. This will cause increased demand in Asia. In particular, India, which controls 11% of the volume, can take these steps. In addition, from 1 July in Japan was eliminated 8% tax on transactions with Bitcoin, and South Korea announced intentions to legalize criptomonedas this year. These factors also favor Bitcoin.

However, for now each growth must be considered as an opportunity to open short positions.

Ivan Marchena, analytical expert

USD / JPY may reach 115.00. Brent can not grow above 50.

Market Currencies

The USD / JPY is growing in a
stable manner, obviously having as the immediate goal mark 115,00. The market again trust the dollar and the yen disappointed.

The labor market data published on Friday in the
US They assured the market that the aggressive attitude of the Federal Reserve was justified. In addition, this week will give a speech Janet Yellen. His optimism about the prospects for the US economy would be a supportive factor for the dollar.

At the
same time the attitude of the Bank of Japan is contrary. A few days ago the central bank made it clear that it would not raise rates before inflation reached 2% mark. Now it is at the level of 0.4%. That is, the yen has no incentive to grow.

According Libertex, the biggest obstacle to the USD / JPY in the rally is the mark of 115.00.
The pair will reach here easily, but it is doubtful that the break on the first try. However, the break made, it can open the way for the long – term upward rally.

Market goods and raw materials

According to
Libertex, Brent managed to return to level of $ 47.00 per barrel because Genscape data indicated that stocks at Cushing fell by 2.1 million barrels, which gives hope to the investors that data API and Energy Department confirmed the reduction of reserves in underground storage tanks US But now even this would not be sufficient for the recovery of Brent above $ 50 a barrel.

Ivan Marchena, analytical expert

It is still not too late to sell the kiwi. Euro is stronger than the yen.

Market currency

Commercial interval NZD / USD remains solid (according Libertex, the lower limit is 0, 6880, the upper – 0.7340).
Each time the pair approaches the upper limit, start the liquidation. Yesterday morning sales accelerated.

Oddly enough, the settlements were caused by weak consumer spending made with the electronic cards last month.
Normally this indicator does not cause a lot of emotions, but this time the volume of expenditure did not reach the level of expectations (0.0% vs. 0.8% forecast). In addition, the Irish and British rugby players visited New Zealand rugby tour frame, which should lead to the rise of consumption.

This may mean that the strong Kiwi causes falling demand in the area of services and, therefore, is not the time to raise interest rates.
Janet Yellen’s intervention in the US Congress it can only accelerate the settlement of torque.

It would be logical to
enter the market by selling NZD / USD after the first upward correction. The immediate objective in this case is the mark of 0.7200, followed by 0.7160.

There is a
good chance that the EUR / JPY remains in the bullish road. The position of the European Central Bank (ECB) seems tougher than the position of the Bank of Japan.

First, the ECB representative Benoit Coeuré said that monetary policy favored the growth of the economy and inflation.
Second, the comments of the representatives of the European regulatory indicate that the bank is preparing for reducing the volume of asset purchases. Third, the Bank of Japan is not willing to increase the rate before inflation reaches 2% target. Four, according to Libertex, prices are now above the moving average of 50 periods.

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