The main event of the day will be the “Non Farm” (Data on employment in the nonfarm sector in the US in September) and expectations of a change in the rate of the US Federal Reserve this year on the basis of these labor market indicators. We continue to be optimistic about the US currency, with a growth target of 94.04 and 95.50 towards. Therefore, for most currency pairs in today’s tactics quotes recoil from a minimum be dangerous.
Furthermore, we recall that in the next week traders China will return to the markets, causing high volatility and at the opening of operations from Sunday to Monday, as they draw all news last week considering its interests.
After a continued decline in the past two months, we have seen a rise in house prices in Britain. In fact, this is a positive factor, especially given the strengthening of the British pound, as the increase in property prices is considered a quality indicator of the health of the economy and increased confidence and ability of consumers. A continuous rise in prices, can support sterling.
Andrew Haldane, CSC Representative of the Bank of England will deliver a speech on public confidence towards institutions in the Royal Society in the aspect of promoting art, production and trade. Indicator of low importance, since it is unlikely that monetary policy issues arise.
The main factor of uncertainty for currency speculators, it is the change in the direction of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which may slightly delay the achievement of technical goals for most assets. Pay attention to this news: “In the coming weeks, Trump will nominate a candidate for the post of the Director of the Fed , ” which gives us a benchmark that any statement to the media as to who has more possibilities of taking a position Janet Yellen, will be an opportunity for growth or decline of the US dollar. In this situation there is clear: the change of the direction of Fed threatens to change the DCT and this news, for the moment, will limit the increase in the price of the US currency.
14:30 EUR Eurozone *** – Report of the European Central Bank (ECB) of the section on monetary policy (September)
The report is published 4 weeks after the section on the ECB ‘s monetary policy, reducing its level of importance to investors, while allowing more accurately determine the overall mood regulator respectively predict the next steps of the ECB, in relation to changes in conditions of monetary policy.
*** 15:30 CAD Canada – Trade balance of foreign trade (August)
15:30 *** USA USD – Trade balance of foreign trade (August)
The United States and Canada will report on the change in the deficit of the trade balance. Markets react with restraint to these reports, but unexpectedly strong shift in the balance may be accompanied by an increase in commercial activity in the US dollar (USD) and Canadian dollar (CAD). Deficit reduction or the appearance of a surplus (surplus) (a surplus is only possible in Canada), is positive for these coins.
On this day, the focus of our attention will focus on changing the number of people employed in the nonfarm sector in the United States ADP. Keep in mind that the market was informed earlier, on the next employment report after the hurricanes, therefore, expectations of a negative dynamics of these data could be engaged in sales of the US dollar in the month of September.
France 10:50 *** 10:55 *** Germany 11:00 *** Eurozone
EUR – Index of business activity in the services sector (September)
EUR – PMI Composite Index (September)
Final Evaluation .
All countries in the currency bloc will receive reports on changes in the level of business activity in the services sector and composite indicators. Although it is very important to understand that this is the final evaluation. Therefore, only a review of the above values may be accompanied by an increase in commercial activity in the EUR. An unexpected upward revision is positive for the euro.
11:30 *** Great Britain GBP – Index of business activity in the services sector (September)
11:30 *** Great Britain GBP – PMI Composite Index (September)
The trend of purchases of the US dollar remains. The idea of long positions to the 95.5 level has not changed. Representatives of the US Federal Reserve continue to manipulate the sentiment of traders with the issue of monetary policy and foreign exchange market participants remain optimistic due to the latest statistics from PMI in the manufacturing sector. The level closest to the rate of US dollar resistance level is 94.07. For operations during the day, it pays to consider this level as it is possible to develop a correction if the level will not be drilled from the first time.
USD Index futures, D (CFD)
EUR / USD
Under conditions of a strong dollar, euro sales should be opened in drilling south of the 1.1700 level. The aim will be the 1.1636 level.
The basic interest rate RBA: 1,5% (remains unchanged)
Germany EUR – Unity Day
11:30 *** Great Britain GBP – PMI Index for the construction sector (September)
The level of importance of this indicator is moderate, but considering its fall in the last three months and consequently reach a minimum value in the last 12 months, his subsequent fall would be negative for sterling (GBP). Economists do not expect a change in the growth rate of the PMI index for the construction sector in Britain. Accordingly, a deviation of forecasts may be accompanied by a burst of commercial activity of sterling.
15:30 *** USA USD – The FOMC Representative Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (October)